How is the surf so far this year in your part of the world ?

[Scott]

Here is what Wetsand.com is saying about Friday. Perhaps they are being too optomistic, but this is quite a forecast!

"Friday the 17th is when our next NW swell is due. This is a significant swell from a system we’ve been tracking since last week off of the Kamchatka Peninsula. This system has been holding together quite well and since last week, the jet stream has dropped, and has positioned itself quite similar to other El Niño years, like 1997, when the California coast was rocked by direct impact swells. As such, the angle on this incoming system is nearly direct at 270-280 degrees, resulting in less loss from angular spreading decay. Given the system’s fetch is producing long-period swells in the 18-22 second range, shoaling as well as refraction will be high. As such, calculationsas of this morning as calling for face heights at most west facing breaks in the 17-20 foot range with 25 foot set waves likely in the very early morning hours at standouts."

Surfline recognizes this may bring some real swell but is waiting another day or two to look at the computer models.

Like I said, Friday afternoon...

[Scott]

Here is what Wetsand.com is saying about Friday. Perhaps they are being too optomistic, but this is quite a forecast!

"Friday the 17th is when our next NW swell is due. This is a significant swell from a system we’ve been tracking since last week off of the Kamchatka Peninsula. This system has been holding together quite well and since last week, the jet stream has dropped, and has positioned itself quite similar to other El Niño years, like 1997, when the California coast was rocked by direct impact swells. As such, the angle on this incoming system is nearly direct at 270-280 degrees, resulting in less loss from angular spreading decay. Given the system’s fetch is producing long-period swells in the 18-22 second range, shoaling as well as refraction will be high. As such, calculationsas of this morning as calling for face heights at most west facing breaks in the 17-20 foot range with 25 foot set waves likely in the very early morning hours at standouts."

Surfline recognizes this may bring some real swell but is waiting another day or two to look at the computer models.

Like I said, Friday afternoon...

[Bud]

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST MON DEC 13 2004

OAHU-
300 PM HST MON DEC 13 2004


HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TUESDAY

Surf along north facing shores will be 18 to 24 feet today slowly subsiding to 12 to 18 feet Tuesday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 14 to 18 feet today slowly subsiding to 10 to 15 feet Tuesday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet with occasional higher sets through Tuesday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 3 feet or less through Tuesday.

Outlook through Sunday Dec 19. A much larger swell will arrive Tuesday night. Surf heights of 30 to 50 feet are expected along north facing shores requiring a high surf warning. The surf is expected to remain above high surf advisory levels of 15 feet through most of Saturday.

(I know some spots that will go balistic with this swell.......ideal kneeboarding waves It's going to be very interesting.)

[Jeff Ommen]

Outlook through Sunday Dec 19. A much larger swell will arrive Tuesday night. Surf heights of 30 to 50 feet are expected along north facing shores requiring a high surf warning.

[fooj]

Call the wind right and paradise is yours.

I surfed a real fun secret spot with a 3-4' wrap from todays NW which is only about half of what Wed's swell is supposed to be. 4 guys out for 3 hours =noodle arms. Rest tomorrow tune into the coconut wireless and see what the call is for Wed or maybe just drive out to the NS and watch. With a swell of this magnitude there should be a few good options on and off shore, as long as the wind cooperates.

[Scott]

Bud,

I can't believe the forecasts for the North Shore--not only huge beyond desrciption but complete with "fair to good" conditions! Should be amazing. I wonder what spots you know of to escape to where it's not so outta control. Hey, don't name them but snap some of those great pics you're famous for...

Surfline is keeping a very conservative estimate on the size hitting NorCal for right now, playing their cards close to the vest until later in the week. Other forecasts think it will be massive, too, by NorCal standards.

I'll see what I can do to add to the photographic documentation, if it's indeed a really big swell.

Scott

[Beeline2.0]

..

[Smokin Rock]

...

[Don]

Well, looks like the the entire West Coast will light up this week... Here is a pic of what the map looks like. San Francisco is about 37 degrees and the forecast is for offshore winds... Last year December 17th was our biggest day of the year and I think we are on track for the same this year. Could this be the magic day?

[Smokin Rock]

...

[Bud]

Fair to good! ?

It's absolutely PERFECT.

Back yards was excellent all day. 6'-8' plus.

Got a few early with only 5 guys out, then business in Honolulu all day and Daddy duty in the afternoon.
Pipe must have been great for the comp.

My daughter and I, rode the bike path to Rocky Pt. around 5:pm.
Great show of surfing with all the spots GOING OFF.

This evening was flawless with an outrageously brilliant sunset.

Speaking of Sunset........I saw a 12+ set wash out the crew just before dark. The new swell is arriving.

The dawn patrol should find a few of us in the know with 6' X 12' thick barrels 1/2 mile out on a reef pass. This place takes 25 ft waves, spilts them in two then reforms them into a wild double up on a fringe reef. The result is a wave akin to Teahupoo. (no exageration...I surfed it with some of the Tahiti boys a couple years ago......they were impressed and compared it to that)
Some of the waves are actually 2 waves in one. You can ride the top wave (a fast wall) or the sick dredger directly under it. They fire off together then fuse into a mutant bowl on the corner of the reef.

Sorry no pics.
Last season during one of the biggest swells out there ever, Garrett McNamarra showed up as we (Tamaio Perry, Occy, a couple others & myself.) were rinsing off. He tried to film but "the boy's" shut him down. He'd just tow surfed 20' Sandy Beach and was headed home when he spotted us.

Some things should remain sacred. There's ample places for the media to exploit.

If you are a serious kneeboarder and show up on the North Shore at the right time.....
I might drag you out there.

Waimea will be EPIC and draw the masses while we play!

This swell should hit Calif. soon after.
Have fun!

[Scott]

Bud, yer a sick man.

Two different waves on the same wave.

I think I'll sit in the reef pass and cheer like those guys I see at Teahupoo.

Small mini-cam hidden inside my left ear.

[gogglefog]

the surf here in southeast alaska isn't quite what it is in hawaii (usually). we spend a lot of time waiting for a break in the weather and the swell to drop. today we scored a right point about 8-10' faces and super glassy groundswell -swell period was thirteen seconds. fifty yard long waves, super steep with the occasional barrel. 43 degree water and seven people out sharing waves (that's huge crowd in alaska). unreal, just wish it happened more often.

[surfhorn]

I say we all chip in and buy Bud a 'helmet cam' with satellite uplink so we can all watch the fun.