Surf Forecast for the KSUSA Contest
Moderator: Moderator
Surf Forecast for the KSUSA Contest
Is there any swell in the water for the KSUSA contest in HB next week? Is it to early to tell?
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Chris Buscemi
- Ripper (more than 100 posts)
- Posts: 122
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 9:40 am
- Location: Okinawa
Potential
Swell Forecast and Schedule
Synopsis
Buoys are showing the latest NW ground swell backing down and some southern hemi is in the background. Harvest has been showing wind and ground swell in the 8-9' range the past few hours with 8-13 second periods. Closer to the coast the action is even less exciting with Ventura Nearshore showing NW at 3' at 14 seconds, and Dana Pt. showing mostly southerly energy at 2' at 14 seconds. Water temps are fairly seasonable with SD/OC running 57-58° (but Newport 55°), LA 55-56°, and VC/SB 53-54°. Tide is hardly an issue today with a 2.3' low around 6:00 AM going to a 4' high around 11:30 AM. The tide will start to swing more widely this next weekend.
NW and SW swells are on the way out today and will fade further through Thursday. In fact, it may be quite lake-like midweek. Things though should turn around for the end of the week.
One of those Aleutian systems on last week's models will increase some NW ground swell on Friday the 14th, but something better sized could hit on the 15th. For Friday the 14th, as you may recall from last week's reports, we're due for some long period ground swell (16+ seconds), but since the system got blocked by high pressure in the eastern Pacific and driven north prematurely into the Gulf, we're looking at waist to maybe chest high max surf coming in from around 290° or so. But Saturday, so far, is looking bigger.
The 60h models today show a reform of the system bringing swell on Friday the 14th. This would create a fetch with about 25' seas at a fairly low latitude north of Hawaii (at about 35N...SoCal is at just about 33N) that would increase surf in SoCal Saturday the 15th. This system isn't expected to hold together much as it progresses across the eastern half of the northern Pacific, but even with just 15-20' seas, once this fetch gets within 1000 miles of our coast, given the low latitude this system, it could bring overhead WNW swell from around 275°. Anytime a system though gets that close to SoCal (some models show just a few hundred miles, in fact), it usually spells weather issues, and such is the case with this system. The low associated with this one is the same low that could bring rain to areas north of Pt. Conception Thursday. While SoCal is expected to remain dry, when the swell arrives (Saturday), we may see a heavier onshore flow. Given the potential proximity of this system it'll need further monitoring over the next few days.
Note also that a smidgen of southern hemi is due on Saturday the 15th as well. This is from weak activity that stirred up south of French Polynesia late last week, and is due to bring some waist high waves to south facing breaks. Wrap from the NW though is looking far greater in size, so far.
Synopsis
Buoys are showing the latest NW ground swell backing down and some southern hemi is in the background. Harvest has been showing wind and ground swell in the 8-9' range the past few hours with 8-13 second periods. Closer to the coast the action is even less exciting with Ventura Nearshore showing NW at 3' at 14 seconds, and Dana Pt. showing mostly southerly energy at 2' at 14 seconds. Water temps are fairly seasonable with SD/OC running 57-58° (but Newport 55°), LA 55-56°, and VC/SB 53-54°. Tide is hardly an issue today with a 2.3' low around 6:00 AM going to a 4' high around 11:30 AM. The tide will start to swing more widely this next weekend.
NW and SW swells are on the way out today and will fade further through Thursday. In fact, it may be quite lake-like midweek. Things though should turn around for the end of the week.
One of those Aleutian systems on last week's models will increase some NW ground swell on Friday the 14th, but something better sized could hit on the 15th. For Friday the 14th, as you may recall from last week's reports, we're due for some long period ground swell (16+ seconds), but since the system got blocked by high pressure in the eastern Pacific and driven north prematurely into the Gulf, we're looking at waist to maybe chest high max surf coming in from around 290° or so. But Saturday, so far, is looking bigger.
The 60h models today show a reform of the system bringing swell on Friday the 14th. This would create a fetch with about 25' seas at a fairly low latitude north of Hawaii (at about 35N...SoCal is at just about 33N) that would increase surf in SoCal Saturday the 15th. This system isn't expected to hold together much as it progresses across the eastern half of the northern Pacific, but even with just 15-20' seas, once this fetch gets within 1000 miles of our coast, given the low latitude this system, it could bring overhead WNW swell from around 275°. Anytime a system though gets that close to SoCal (some models show just a few hundred miles, in fact), it usually spells weather issues, and such is the case with this system. The low associated with this one is the same low that could bring rain to areas north of Pt. Conception Thursday. While SoCal is expected to remain dry, when the swell arrives (Saturday), we may see a heavier onshore flow. Given the potential proximity of this system it'll need further monitoring over the next few days.
Note also that a smidgen of southern hemi is due on Saturday the 15th as well. This is from weak activity that stirred up south of French Polynesia late last week, and is due to bring some waist high waves to south facing breaks. Wrap from the NW though is looking far greater in size, so far.
If I say its safe to surf this beach Captain, then its safe to surf this beach. I mean I'm not afraid to surf this place, I'll surf this whole f@cking place!
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Jack Beresford
- Legend (Contribution King!)
- Posts: 717
- Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2003 12:32 pm
- Location: San Diego
swell
BRING IT ON! 
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Mike Fernandez
- Legend (Contribution King!)
- Posts: 2396
- Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:30 pm
- Location: I live on the edge.
- Contact:
Waves should be bigger Fri/Sat. The tide on Sat. will be around 5ft for the morning heats, draining to about 1/2 ft for the afternoon. Big difference for the surf I think. 
I am a traveller of both time and space, a weaver in and out of dreams, I see worlds seldom seen.
www.michaelfernandezphoto.com
Rocky Point/Black Rock
http://www.youtube.com/user/kneelocoveproduction
www.michaelfernandezphoto.com
Rocky Point/Black Rock
http://www.youtube.com/user/kneelocoveproduction
ride with pride
Im gonna enjoy hearing the water referees hold back the multitudes while just a few kneeboarding bros get to bust loose in the juice! bring on the offs!
the surf wont fail us!
the surf wont fail us!
