From Wetsand pertaining of the week of Feb 25-30th timeframe
probably 10 days from now. Nice sized "Summer swell"(for N. America these are typically our Summer Swells) origination off of New Zealand for us in February. These typically arrive for us Apr/May-Oct,so February is definetly 'pre-season'.
Good new though for south facing breaks next week. That southern hemi I started tracking last week near New Zealand has materialized, and swell is on the way. Although I'm still basing this part of the forecast on 12-36h models, confidence is high that we're gonna get some sizeable SW swell. As you may recall from last week's reports, this swell is from what models have shown as a massive storm near New Zealand taking a direct NE'erly course towards us, resulting in little to no loss from angular spreading decay. If this one lives up to models' expectations (which so far seems the case) then its 40-foot seas will pump up 16- 18-second period energy from 220 degrees. So although this system should peak around 5500 miles from our shores, with no loss from angular spreading decay, this one should bring sets running 2-4 feet overhead at south facing breaks. Confidence is high on this scenario, but I will need to confirm it in my next report.
I vote for wedge if it comes. I grew up bodysurfing there and will definitely make the trip back down to Newport and stay at my dad's place for a gathering!!
Or we could hit El Morro if its that great of a swell
One of the most memorable south swells I caught was in Feb, quite a few years back in my boating days. Couldn't find a soul to go with me the night prior, so did the solo crossing. Smoothest crossing to the islands ever...sheet glass, full throttle, and my '65 Montauk doing 40+ knots the whole way.
Get to the "spot," 4-6 foot perfection, and not a soul in sight. Suited up and sat for about 15 minutes contemplating my karma and the risk of cracking my skull open, when I spy another boat on the horizon. Soon enough it's obviously more surfers, so I'm on it. Surfed alone for almost an hour before these two standups decide to paddle out. The three of us surfed the place for half the day before another boat showed up.
looking at the models today, looks like this upcoming swell will be a little bit
of a dissapointment. It didnt push north or north east as forcefully as the models had stably predicted. There will be a swell however, maybe not overhead. The cake should be baked in tomorrows Wetsand report.
